Warren Buffett Has Advice For People Trying To Get Rich By Copying His Moves: 'You Can Piggyback, But You Can't Buy the Whole Businesses'
模仿巴菲特的投資組合去買股票能發(fā)財(cái)嗎？巴菲特建議：“你可以跟著買，但你買不了整個(gè)公司”
January 15, 2025
There's no shortage of headlines about people mimicking Warren Buffett's portfolio and striking gold. The idea seems simple enough: Buffett buys Apple, you buy Apple. He sells a bank stock, you do the same. Why not ride the coattails of one of the richest and most successful investors in the world? On a smaller scale, it might even make sense – after all, if it worked for him, why wouldn't it work for you?
經(jīng)常能看到有人模仿沃倫·巴菲特的投資組合，并聲稱獲得了成功。這個(gè)策略似乎很簡單：巴菲特買什么股票，你也買什么；他賣什么股票，你也賣什么。為什么不跟著這位世界上最富有、最成功的投資者之一呢？在較小規(guī)模上，這可能確實(shí)有效。畢竟，如果對他有用，為什么對你就無效呢？
But Buffett himself has weighed in on this strategy and the answer might surprise you. During the 2009 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, a shareholder asked a bold question: why shouldn't investors just sell their Berkshire Hathaway shares and directly copy his moves?
"[In terms of buying what we're buying], others can't buy with free float, although they may have tax advantages we don't have," Buffett explained, referencing the unique advantages Berkshire Hathaway enjoys due to its structure. "We don't quarrel with those who buy what we buy. You can piggyback, but you can't buy the [whole] businesses we do."
“其他人很難像我們這樣靈活地運(yùn)用資金，即使他們可能有稅收方面的優(yōu)勢。”巴菲特解釋道，伯克希爾·哈撒韋的特殊公司結(jié)構(gòu)賦予了它獨(dú)特的優(yōu)勢。“我們不反對模仿我們的投資，但你們無法像我們一樣收購整個(gè)公司。”
His longtime business partner Charlie Munger added: "It's generally quite smart to copy very successful investors."
他的長期商業(yè)伙伴查理·芒格也表示：“模仿非常成功的投資者通常是明智的選擇。”
Buffett himself admitted, "I did the same thing when I was young."
巴菲特本人也坦言：“我年輕時(shí)也曾這么做過。”
But does that mean replicating Buffett's investments is a foolproof way to build wealth? Not exactly.
然而，這是否意味著模仿巴菲特的投資是一種萬無一失的致富方式？事實(shí)并非如此。
The Pitfalls of Copycat Investing
模仿投資的陷阱
While Buffett doesn't outright dismiss the idea, he clarifies that mimicking his portfolio isn't a perfect strategy. One key reason is scale. Berkshire Hathaway doesn't just buy shares – it often buys entire businesses. This gives the company leverage, operational control and economies of scale that an individual investor can't replicate.
盡管巴菲特并未完全否定模仿他的投資組合的想法，但他指出這并不是完美的策略。一個(gè)關(guān)鍵原因是規(guī)模。伯克希爾·哈撒韋不僅僅購買股票，它還經(jīng)常直接收購整個(gè)公司。這樣的規(guī)模收購能夠給伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司提供了杠桿作用、運(yùn)營控制和規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)，而個(gè)人投資者無法復(fù)制這些優(yōu)勢。
Buffett's moves are often tied to advantages unique to Berkshire, such as the "free float" from its insurance businesses. This allows the company to invest without the same financial constraints an individual might face.
Another factor is timing. By the time Buffett's trades become public, market conditions may have shifted. You're often playing catch-up, which means you might not reap the same benefits from the investments he makes.
另一個(gè)因素是時(shí)機(jī)。當(dāng)巴菲特的交易已經(jīng)公開被報(bào)道時(shí)，市場狀況可能已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。你總是處于追趕狀態(tài)，這意味著你可能無法獲得與巴菲特同樣的收益。
What About the Upside?
模仿投資的積極一面是什么？
Still, there's merit to learning from Buffett's choices. As Munger pointed out, copying successful investors is "generally quite smart." Buffett studied his mentor Benjamin Graham and learned from other great investors during his early years. Analyzing Buffett's portfolio can provide insights into how he evaluates companies and what he considers a good value.
However, blindly following his trades isn't the same as understanding his strategy. Buffett's approach is deeply rooted in fundamental analysis, long-term thinking and an ability to evaluate businesses, not just stocks. Without that underlying knowledge, copying his moves could be risky.
然而，盲目模仿巴菲特的投資并不等于理解他的投資理念。巴菲特的投資方法深深植根于基本面分析、長期投資和對企業(yè)的深入評估。如果沒有這些基礎(chǔ)知識，單純模仿他的投資行為可能風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很大。
Observing and learning from his decisions can offer valuable lessons, but the most important takeaway might be to develop your own investing philosophy.
觀察和學(xué)習(xí)巴菲特的投資決策可以給我們帶來寶貴的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，但更重要的是，我們應(yīng)該培養(yǎng)自己的投資理念。
Buffett and the late Munger would likely agree for those aspiring to follow in his footsteps: don't just imitate – educate. That's the true key to long-term success. After all, the best investment approach is one that works for you.
巴菲特和芒格或許會(huì)同意這樣一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)：想要取得投資成功，不應(yīng)僅僅模仿，更重要的是學(xué)習(xí)。真正的長期成功之道在于培養(yǎng)自己的投資能力。畢竟，最適合你的投資方法才是最好的。
