歐洲正在步入全面危機。
You see, the debt problems in Europe are not simply related to Greece. They are SYSTEMIC. The below chart shows the official Debt to GDP ratios for the major players in Europe.
可以看出，歐洲的債務問題不單單涉及到希臘，而是系統(tǒng)性的。下圖中顯示了歐洲主要成員官方債務與GDP的比率。
As you can see, even the more “solvent” countries like Germany and France are sporting Debt to GDP ratios of 75% and 84% respectively.
正如所看到的，甚至那些“有償付能力”的國家，比如德國法國，債務與GDP的比率都分別高達75%與84%。
These numbers, while bad, don’t account for unfunded liabilities. And Europe is nothing if not steeped in unfunded liabilities.
這組數(shù)字雖然已經(jīng)很糟糕，但是還不包括無資金準備的負債。如果不采用無資金準備的負債歐洲將一無所有。
Let’s consider Germany. According to Axel Weber, the head of Germany’s Central Bank, Germany is in fact sitting on a REAL Debt to GDP ratio of over 200%. This is Germany… with unfunded liabilities equal to over TWO times its current GDP.
以德國為例，根據(jù)德國中央銀行行長Axel Weber的說法德國實際的債務與GDP的比率超過200%。這就是德國，無資金準備的負債相當于其現(xiàn)有GDP的兩倍。
To put the insanity of this into perspective, Weber’s claim is akin to Ben Bernanke going on national TV and saying that the US actually owes more than $30 trillion and that the debt ceiling is in fact a joke.
如果要提到這些瘋狂的數(shù)據(jù)，Weber的聲明同Ben Bernanke相似，其干脆到國家電臺上說實際的欠債達到30萬億美元，債務上限實際就是一個笑話。
What’s truly frightening about this is that Weber is most likely being conservative here. Jagadeesh Gokhale of the Cato Institute published a paper for EuroStat in 2009 claiming Germany’s unfunded liabilities are in fact closer to 418%.
真正讓人感到驚恐的是Weber的數(shù)據(jù)還是保守的。卡托研究所的Jagadeesh Gokhale在2009年為歐洲統(tǒng)計局發(fā)表過文章聲稱德國的無準備負債實際上接近418%。
And of course, Germany has yet to recapitalize its banks.
當然，德國已經(jīng)在調整銀行資本。
Indeed, by the German Institute for Economic Research’s OWN admission, German banks need 147 billion Euros’ worth of new capital.
事實上，德國經(jīng)濟研究所自己承認，德國銀行需要價值1470億歐元的資金。
To put this number into perspective TOTAL EQUITY at the top three banks in Germany is less than 100 billion Euros.
將這些數(shù)據(jù)放到圖表中，德國最大的三個銀行的總資產(chǎn)低于1000億歐元。
And this is GERMANY we’re talking about: the supposed rock-solid balance sheet of Europe. How bad do you think the other, less fiscally conservative EU members are?
我們在討論的是德國-被認為是歐洲資產(chǎn)負債表最堅實的一個國家。其他財政政策更保守的成員的糟糕情況就可想而知了。
Think BAD. As in systemic collapse bad.
Indeed, let’s consider TOTAL debt sitting on Financial Institutions’ balance sheets in Europe. The below chart shows this number for financial institutions in several major EU members relative to their country’s 2010 GDP.
讓我們站在歐洲金融機構的資產(chǎn)負債表上考慮總的債務。下圖中顯示的是歐盟幾個主要成員的債務占2010GDP的比率：
Country
Country 國家 Financial Institutions’ Gross Debt as a % of GDP 金融機構總債務占GDP的比率 Portugal 葡萄牙 65% Italy 意大利 99% Ireland 冰島 664% Greece 希臘 21% Spain 西班牙 113% UK 英國 735% France 法國 148% Germany德國 95% EU as a whole 總體 148% Source: IMF （數(shù)據(jù)來源：IMF）
Financial Institutions’ Gross Debt as a % of GDP
Portugal
65%
Italy
99%
Ireland
664%
Greece
21%
Spain
113%
UK
735%
France
148%
Germany
95%
EU as a whole
148%
Source: IMF
As you can see, financial institutions in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Ireland are all ticking time bombs.
如你所看到的，德國、法國、意大利、西班牙、英國以及冰島的金融機構就像是定時炸彈。
Indeed, taken as a whole, European financial institutions have more debt than Europe’s ENTIRE GDP. Let’s compare the situation there to that in the US banking system.
事實上，從總體來看，歐洲金融機構的債務高于歐洲總的GDP.讓我們來比較一下美國銀行系統(tǒng)的相關數(shù)據(jù)。
Taken as a whole, the US banking system is leveraged at 13 to 1. Leverage levels at the TBTFs are much much higher… but when you add them in with the 8,100+ other banks in the US, total US bank leverage is 13 to 1.
總體上來看，美國銀行系統(tǒng)的杠桿為13:1。TBTFs水平或許更高一些…但是8100多個銀行會總后，真?zhèn)€美國銀行的杠桿率為13:1.
The European banking system as a whole is leveraged at nearly twice this at over 26 to 1. That’s the ENTIRE European Banking system leveraged at near Lehman levels (Lehman was 30 to 1 when it collapsed).
歐洲銀行系統(tǒng)的杠桿接近美國的兩倍，超過26:1。整個歐洲銀行系統(tǒng)的杠桿接近雷曼水平（雷曼倒閉時為30:1）
To put this into perspective, with a leverage level of 26 to 1, you only need a 4% drop in asset prices to wipe out ALL capital. What are the odds that European bank assets fall 4% in value in the near future as the PIIGS continue to collapse?
將這些數(shù)據(jù)放到圖表中，在26:1的杠桿水平，資產(chǎn)價格只需要下降4%就可以導致全部資本崩塌。在不久的將來歐洲銀行資產(chǎn)下降4%的可能性有多大呢？
These leverage levels alone position Europe for a full-scale banking collapse on par with Lehman Brothers. Again, I’m talking about Europe’s ENTIRE banking system collapsing.
歐洲銀行系統(tǒng)的杠桿水平與倒閉的雷曼兄弟在同一個水平上。再次，我強調現(xiàn)在談到的是歐洲整個銀行系統(tǒng)的崩潰。
This is not a question of “if,” it is a question of “when.” And it will very likely happen before the end of 2012.
這不是一個是否存在這種可能的問題，而是何時發(fā)生的問題。而且非常有可能發(fā)生在2012年底。
The reason that this is guaranteed to happen before the end of 2012 is that a HUGE percentage of European bank debt needs to be rolled over by the end of 2012.
2012年底之前可能發(fā)生的原因是歐洲銀行有很大比例的債務需要在2012年底前展期。
I trust at this point you are beginning to see why any expansion of the EFSF or additional European bailouts is ultimately pointless: Europe’s ENTIRE BANKING SYSTEM as a whole is insolvent. Even a 4-10% drop in asset prices would wipe out ALL equity at many European banks.
我相信根據(jù)這些你已經(jīng)開始認識到為什么歐洲穩(wěn)定基金組織的任何擴張或者其他歐洲的緊急救援都是無濟于事的：歐洲整個銀行系統(tǒng)都是無藥可救的。甚至資產(chǎn)價格的4%-10%的下跌都可以讓許多歐洲銀行的所有資產(chǎn)徹底崩潰。
