?蘇伊士運河“大堵”6天，埃及政府每天的通行費損失就達到1200萬至1400萬美元。
?德國保險公司安聯(lián)研究顯示，擱淺導致的蘇伊士運河封鎖或使全球貿(mào)易每天損失60億至100億美元。
?還有船舶、貨物、救助等其他損失。
天災：有關(guān)方面報道稱，“長賜”輪2021年3月23日遇到42節(jié)側(cè)風（相當于9級風）吹襲，導致擱淺。
天災+人禍：蘇伊士運河管理局主席拉比耶多次強調(diào)，這種重大事故的發(fā)生，原因往往不只一個，除了沙塵暴和強風，還可能有貨輪的技術(shù)故障和人為因素等等。
?船舶長度不受限
?船舶寬度受限：最大船寬77.7M，船寬超過66.7米，僅在風平浪靜橫風不超過10KN的天氣下才可以通過---橫風是巨大威脅；
?船舶吃水受限：運河大部分水深18.5~19.5米，最大吃水受船寬的限制，自1992年8月1日起，不論北上和南下，統(tǒng)一執(zhí)行“船寬和吃水”表的規(guī)定；
?航速受限：空載船舶的吃水，基本上沒問題，但航速受限：北上船隊13-14KM/H，南下船隊14KM/H（約7.6KN）
?“長賜”輪運營方是臺灣長榮海運，船東是日本正榮汽船，船管是德國BSM，巴拿馬旗，ABS船級社，IMO9811000，2018年日本今冶（IMABARI）船廠造；
?船長/寬約：400M/59M
?船舶吃水：16米
網(wǎng)傳的船長聲明，其第二次換引水時間不合邏輯
2021年3月23日（埃及時間UTC+2，北京時間UTC+8）
?LT0424接上第一名引航員，LT0530進入蘇伊士運河。在下船之前，引航員要煙，但船長禮貌地拒絕了，聲明船上按照租船人的規(guī)定實施零腐敗政策。
?LT0526到LT0534，引航員下船交接，第一次更換引水（在運河入口）。
?LT0534第二名引航員(Capt.Khaled)上船，一直引航到伊斯馬利亞。該引航員在操船過程中似乎有點焦躁，有幾次試圖要叫出來（舵手駕駛航向比要求高0.2度）。船長一直都在場，舵手從來沒有執(zhí)行過錯誤的舵命令，船舶轉(zhuǎn)向也沒有任何問題。在離船之前，引航員要煙，但船長禮貌地拒絕了，聲明船上按照租船人的規(guī)定實施零腐敗政策。
?第二次更換引水時間未知，某聲明中提到：1005到1013，但該船是埃及當?shù)厣衔鐣r間0800左右(北京時間1400)發(fā)生的擱淺,如果某聲明中的時間是當?shù)貢r間LT 1005到LT 1013，第二次更換引水時間晚于擱淺時間2個小時。這顯然是不可能的。
?第二名引航員下船交接，第三名引航員（哈立德·穆罕默德·侯賽因·哈桑內(nèi)船長-身份證號碼No.1721201）登船后，與即將離船的引航員用當?shù)卣Z言說了幾句話。這一般是蘇伊士運河引水的慣例，接下來就是船長和第三名引航員的駕駛臺操船。
?LT0800(北京時間1400)船舶擱淺，船頭右頂上岸，船艉因為慣性掃到左岸，運河被堵塞長達6天，直到3月29號大潮水脫淺，然而后續(xù)的官司索賠等問題才剛剛開始。
長時間嚴重超速高：根據(jù)蘇伊士運河通航相關(guān)要求，該大型集箱船易受橫風影響，其運河通航速度應該小于航速14KM/H，14/1.853=7.6節(jié)，即航速應小于8節(jié)。但事實上，該船擱淺前30分鐘平均航速普遍高于13節(jié)，超速高達71%，甚至達到13.7節(jié)。
下圖為HiFleet船舶AIS軌跡圖
該船在北京時間1400擱淺，其在1328的船速高達13.7節(jié)，在1340船速仍然高達13.0節(jié)。
人禍——誰在違規(guī)操作？該船擱淺前半小時，一直處于嚴重超速狀態(tài)，為何運河交管、引水和船長，一直默許這種嚴重超速情況的存在？他們會不知道相關(guān)規(guī)定？
天災——突然的橫風？在這種嚴重超速情況下，一個橫風吹過來，由于船舶受風面積大，而運河很窄約200米左右，舵效根本沒有反應時間，就是船長和引水已無能為力。再多的萬寶路也無法避免船舶高速沖岸擱淺(船速如果低于7.6節(jié)，其應急反應時間比較寬裕，船舶動能和速度平方成正比，速度慢，其擱淺程度也將大大降低)。
風險評估。船長對過運河缺乏必要的風險評估，認識到安全通過運河的責任重大（相關(guān)評估僅貨物價值就高達35億美元），明確過運河是高風險的臨界操作，應嚴格按照運河通航的要求和防范可能的橫風，知悉引水的習慣，把接待運河引水工作提高到PSC迎檢的高度。船長應該進行適當?shù)娘L險評估。
清晰的定位。在港口國檢查中，船舶通常處于弱勢地位，船長對此應該有清晰的定位；堵在蘇伊士運河中的“EVERGIVEN”就像是一只“肥羊”，而大苦湖的“EVERGIVEN”已經(jīng)是“待宰的羔羊”，而處理的結(jié)果必然是讓運河管理當局滿意，復雜的官司糾纏，隨著時間的推移，“EVERGIVEN”最終也許會只剩下“一張羊皮”。
船長應善于駕駛臺資源（MRM）的管理。引水是宣示國家主權(quán)，同時也是對船舶有益的資源。船長更加清楚車船舵的狀況，船長對外應保持一定的彈性，擺正自身的位置，靈活應對，“強龍不壓地頭蛇”；同樣送幾條萬寶路，有人認為是尊重，有人認為是侮辱。個人認為，如果不是原則性的問題，“入鄉(xiāng)隨俗，入鄉(xiāng)問禁，合法合規(guī)是保障”也罷。成為優(yōu)秀的船長不容易。
船舶脫淺時的最高速度控制在7.4節(jié)。船舶脫淺時，船舶航速是嚴格按照運河通航要求來執(zhí)行的，如下圖，其最高速度控制在7.4節(jié)。
這次事故的教訓無疑是慘痛的，唯希望能為后來者帶來一些驚醒和反思。
船員的健康和安全：能夠成為一流船管、一流船舶的船長，其個人專業(yè)能力是非常優(yōu)秀的，但該事故造成如此大的損失和影響，“長賜”輪船長的職業(yè)生涯基本宣告結(jié)束，船長身心疲憊，甚至面臨牢獄之災。船員的健康和安全無法保證。
船員的關(guān)鍵作用：該事故再次證明了，船員在國際物流產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈和供應鏈中的關(guān)鍵作用，相關(guān)的外貿(mào)企業(yè)，如生產(chǎn)商、出口商、進口商、船東、租家、保險公司面臨巨大的威脅甚至是生存危機，船員的素質(zhì)和高質(zhì)量的培訓是何等的重要，最低要求的履約培訓，顯然已經(jīng)不能再適應航運業(yè)的高質(zhì)量發(fā)展要求了。
減少人為因素事故是航運安全管理新趨勢：船長、輪機長TOP4等管理層的素質(zhì)起到?jīng)Q定性的作用。然而我們當今的培訓資源，卻集中在增量學生的培訓上，這有待于扭轉(zhuǎn)；學生只是實習生的角色，提高學生素質(zhì)來降低海上安全事故，表面上看起來邏輯合理，提高了增量海員的素質(zhì)；但存量海員才是決定航運安全的主體，因此提高存量海員的素質(zhì)是關(guān)鍵，依靠提高學生素質(zhì)來降低海上安全事故顯然是偏了，而且效果甚微。
“名師出高徒”，如果師傅不行，如何帶出好徒弟？
提高船長、輪機長TOP4等管理層的素質(zhì)：提高船長、輪機長TOP4等管理層的培訓質(zhì)量，才是減少航運人為事故之根本，這需要政府、行業(yè)和多方的共同重視和資源投入，提高船長、輪機長TOP4等管理層非履約賦能培訓的質(zhì)量是航運安全的根本保障。
海員非履約賦能培訓不被重視由來已久，相關(guān)師資和教材也基本處于空白狀態(tài)，即便有了師資和教材也多是缺乏經(jīng)驗、脫離實踐的理論說教。
當前已是桃紅柳綠，春花絢爛，船長、輪機長TOP4等管理層的賦能培訓、海員船岸職業(yè)發(fā)展的春天，是否也到來了？
以上為個人淺見，僅供參考！
時老軌
2021/4/19
▽網(wǎng)傳的船長聲明▽
Statementof Ever Given Master:
Pleasenote the below incident which occurred during vessel’s Suez CanalTransit (Southbound) on 11Mar’21.
Vesselpicked up the first Pilot at 0424hrs before Canal entry and enteredthe Suez Canal (Port Said side) at 0530hrs.
Beforedisembarking, the pilot requested for Ciggarettes which was politelydeclined by master stating the zero corruption policy implemented onboard as per charterers. The pilot disembarked thereafter.
FirstPilot change (at Canal Entry) was from 0526hrs to 0534hrs.
The2nd pilot (Capt. Khaled) who barded the vessel was on board tillIsmalia.
Thepilot was seeming a bit anxious during manoeuvring and on a fewoccasions tried to call out the helmsman for steering courses 0.2degrees more than required. Master was present at all times and at nopoint did the helmsman execute a wrong helm order nor was any issuewith vessel’s steering noted.
Beforedisembarking the pilot requested for Ciggarettes which was politelydeclined by master stating the zero corruption policy implemented onboard as per charterers.
SecondPilot change at Ismalia from 1005hrsto 1013hrs.
The3rd pilot (Capt. Khalied Mohammed Hussain Hassane – ID No.1721201)after boarding the vessel exchanged a few words with the pilot whowas disembarking (in their local language) as is the general practicein Suez.
Herefused to exchange pleasantaries with the Master and immediatelyafter the 2nd pilot disembarked he said -
Quote-“Captain, please take the ship and navigate through the canal. I amonly here to assist and advise you as per Suez Canal rules.”-Unquote
Whenquestioned regarding what he meant by the same and if he will begiving helm orders and courses to steer, he said that master wasfully responsible for the same and navigating through the canal. Thepilots job was only to observe and advise as required.
Pleasenote that while this exchange was happening, the vessel was stillunderway in the convoy, passing bends and turns in the canal forwhich the helm orders were being given by Master.
Inthe next 15-20 mins whilst manoeuvring through the canal, the pilotwas politely, sternly and diplomatically requested to co-operatehowever he kept saying that the Master is supposed to handle thevessel. Additionally he said that the last pilot has handed over tohim regarding issue with vessel’s steering, hence he will onlyobserve.
Hewas assured by Master that their was no issue with the vessel’ssteering, something he could have observed in the 20 mins he had beenon board; however he refused to co-operate.
Atthat moment my focus as master was the safety of the vessel and thesafe navigation (without any assistance from the pilot), alongwithensuring the Bridge Team does not get distracted and therefore couldnot indulge in any detailed argument with the pilot.
Afterabout 20 mins of navigating through the canal (Near Ismalia) in anarea where there were continous alterations and no steady course,with the pilot not giving any helm orders, and trying to harass theMaster & vessel, the pilot was told that the matter will bereported to Ismalia Port Control.
Assoon as the master picked up the VHF and called Ismalia Port Controlon Ch8, the pilot raised his volume high, started shouting, snatchedthe VHF from the master’s hand (which also resulted in advertentlypushing the Master) and threatened that if same was reported “Itwill not be good for the vessel”.
Atthat very moment, in his raised volume he called for fwd and aftstations and for both anchors to be lowered to water level, as heinsisted on stopping the vessel and arresting vessel for faultysteering. He said vessel will be held at Bitter lake until sea trialswere carried out.
Fwdstation was immediately manned however anchors were not lowered asship was doing 9 knots speed.
