芒格2016年在Daily Journal會議上的問答翻譯：可可老鼠
2016. 2 .20開始翻譯
問答反映了芒格投資思路，以及對現(xiàn)狀的新看法。 英文原文更新于2016.02.18，根據(jù)該活動音頻做的筆記。共35問，暫時打算不另開新帖，陸續(xù)更新在本帖中。思想智慧屬于芒格，翻譯錯誤屬于我。（先翻譯開篇和5個重要的問題）
前言：Daily Journal 公司是什么樣的公司？
其主營報(bào)紙業(yè)務(wù)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)業(yè)務(wù)。旗下出版10中報(bào)紙，包括Los Angeles Daily Journal, Daily Commerce, San Francisco Daily Journal, The Daily Recorder, The Inter-City Express, San Jose Post-Record, Orange County Reporter, The Daily Transcript, Business Journal, and The Record Reporter。
同時提供網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)，包括廣告服務(wù)。此外，提供軟件服務(wù)，如 case management software systems，包括 eCourt, eProsecutor, eDefender, and eProbation, JustWare,ICMS，eFile, ePayIt,（這些軟件基本都是司法領(lǐng)域服務(wù)軟件）
原文鏈接：
http://thecharlieton.com/?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0 …
The 2016 Daily Journal Meetings Notes: February 10, 2016Los Angeles—Charlie Munger hosted the Daily Journal Corporation’s (NASDAQ:DJCO) 2016 annual meeting at the company’s headquarters in Los Angeles, California on February 11, 2016. Detailed notes of the proceedings appear below. These notes fall short of a verbatim transcription. Rather, they represent my best attempt at capturing Mr. Munger’s wisdom as faithfully as allowed by the circumstances. Errors of transcription are mine.
洛杉磯——查理 芒格 主持Daily Journal公司（納斯達(dá)克： DJCO）的2016年度會議，地點(diǎn)在公司總部加州洛杉磯，2016年二月十一日。詳細(xì)的會議進(jìn)程筆記如下。這些筆記達(dá)不到逐字記錄的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。然而，它們代表了我在當(dāng)時環(huán)境下，盡可能忠實(shí)地獲取芒格先生智慧的嘗試。記錄的錯誤之處在于我。
Charlie Munger: (Inaudibly addressing the formal business of The Daily Journal for approximately five minutes)
芒格：（聽不清楚地，念了大約五分鐘Daily Journal的正式業(yè)務(wù)）
Unidentified Audience Member: Can you please turn the mic up?
身份未知的聽眾：請把麥克風(fēng)開大。
Charlie Munger: Is this better? (Audience cheers) Some of you may remember that this same thing happened at a Wesco meeting once. Back to the Daily Journal. Like many newspapers it was once a fine business. Of course the world changed a lot, as it has for other newspapers.
芒格：這樣好點(diǎn)了么？（聽眾歡呼）你們中的一些人可能記得，這樣的情況在Wesco的會議也發(fā)生過一次。說回到Daily Journal。像很多報(bào)紙那樣，它曾經(jīng)是很好的生意。當(dāng)然，世界已然大變了，就像其他報(bào)紙那樣。
But some things have gone well, like our stock holdings. We made a lot of money in the foreclosure boom. We had more than 80% of the foreclosure notice business. It was huge prosperity for us and that gave us a lot of money, and we then used that money to buy securities at low prices during the panic. We were aided by that peculiar circumstances, and it offset the deterioration of our newspaper business. Of course, we’ve also entered the software business.
但是一些事情變好了，就像我們的持股。我們在取消抵押品贖回權(quán)（foreclosure）繁榮期賺了大錢。我們有多于80%的 取消抵押品贖回權(quán)（foreclosure）通告 業(yè)務(wù)。它是我們的巨大成功，為我們賺了大錢，并且我們隨后使用那些錢，在恐慌時期低價(jià)購買證券。我們受到那時特殊環(huán)境的幫助，并且它抵消了我們報(bào)紙業(yè)務(wù)的惡化。當(dāng)然，我們同樣進(jìn)入了軟件生意。
And what’s happened now is that we have more software properties than print properties and those businesses are doing much better. And the business is doing better because our product is way better than that of our main competitor. And there is an endless market for this stuff. District attorneys, courts; it’s hard to imagine anything more certain to flourish.
現(xiàn)在發(fā)生的情況時，我們擁有的軟件資產(chǎn)多于出版業(yè)資產(chǎn)，并且那些業(yè)務(wù)做得更好。業(yè)務(wù)做得好是因?yàn)槲覀兊漠a(chǎn)品比我們主要對手好得多。并且，這種產(chǎn)品有無盡的市場。地方律師，法院；難以想象有什么東西比它更加確定繁榮。
It’s agony to do business with public bodies and their bureaucracies and agencies, but it’s the agony that keeps many other software companies from coming into the market. If you’re Microsoft you’re into easy money. They did buy one of these businesses once, and it was not a success. The really big boys find it hard, and they tend to stay out. I think our prospects are thus better than our main opposition.
和公共機(jī)構(gòu)，以及它們的官僚主義和代理機(jī)構(gòu)做生意，是痛苦的，但是這種痛苦使得許多其他軟件公司不會進(jìn)入這個市場。如果你是微軟，你則進(jìn)入了容易贏錢（的模式）。它們曾經(jīng)購買一個這類的生意，并且沒有成功。真正的大家伙發(fā)現(xiàn)它是困難的，故而它們傾向于不插手（此生意）。我認(rèn)為我們的前景因此好于我們的對手。
What you have here is a sort of venture capital approach to the software business. We’ve tacked on a software business to a newspaper. Our stock may be reasonable if you like VC investments, but it’s not right for Ben Graham groupies. I’m not saying it won’t work, but if it does, you don’t deserve it.
對于軟件生意，你在此擁有的是某種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本。我們在報(bào)紙生意上 附加了 軟件生意。 如果你喜歡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本投資，我們的股票可能更加合理，但是它對于格雷厄姆迷而言，不是正確的。我不是說它不會奏效，但如果它會，你并不值得擁有它。
(Audience laughs) With that I’ll take questions.
(聽眾笑了)接下來我將回答提問。
Questioner One: Tell us about one or two opportunities in technology and also give us one or two risks.
提問者1：告訴我們一兩個科技領(lǐng)域的機(jī)會，并告訴我們一兩個風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
Charlie Munger: The one I was most excited about was getting into(inaudible, but could have been Journal Technologies). Crucial milestone. We bought this little nothing software company and now it has 80 or 99 employees. The new business is interesting because it’s in a big market. I think whoever gets entrenched in it will be in a very sticky business.
芒格：我最興奮的一個是進(jìn)入（聽不清楚，但應(yīng)該是Journal Technologies）。重要的里程碑。我們買了這個小的，幾乎一無所有的軟件公司，而它現(xiàn)在有80-99名員工。新的業(yè)務(wù)是有趣的的，因?yàn)樗且粋€大市場。我想不論是誰扎根于此市場，都將會處在一個非常有粘性的業(yè)務(wù)中。
At least we will have entered a business where we’ll be hard to dislodge. The hurdle is that we want to be most important player in this new niche, which is a big niche. I don’t regard that as going poorly. It’s going well. (Authors note: Journal Technologies is a subsidiary of DJCO and supplies case management software to courts and justice agencies).
至少我們將進(jìn)入一個我們難以被驅(qū)逐的市場。困難在于我們想要成為這個新的商機(jī)中最重要的角色，它是大的商機(jī)。我不認(rèn)為那會變得匱乏。它將變好。（作者筆記：Journal Technologies 是DJCO的子公司，為法庭和司法機(jī)構(gòu)提供案例軟件）
Questioner Two: I’m from Stanford. Thanks for donating the Munger building. You’ve said you want to know where you’re going to die, so you never go there. A few years ago Warren Buffet bought IBM, and some people say he walked out of the circle of competence. Can you comment in relation to the first comment?
(譯注：此問是對IBM看法，很多人質(zhì)疑巴菲特買IBM。)
提問者2：我從斯坦福來。感謝捐贈芒格大樓。你說你想知道你在何處會死去，所以你永遠(yuǎn)不會去那里。幾年前，巴菲特購買了IBM，一些人說他走出了能力圈。你能做出與第一個回答相關(guān)評價(jià)么？
Charlie Munger: IBM is a lot like us. They have a traditional business that is very sticky, but then the world changed. And of course, in the new world they are not the leader. Up came Oracle and Microsoft. IBM didn’t do too well with the rise of the PC.
芒格：IBM很大程度上像我們。他們有非常具有粘性的傳統(tǒng)生意，但隨后世界變了。當(dāng)然，在新的世界，他們不是領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。甲骨文和微軟后來居上。IBM在個人電腦增長時期做得不好。
But IBM is in a position where they have an old business and a new business. (Inaudible). The automated checklist is a great idea. It was particularly useful for Edison.
但I(xiàn)BM處在一個位置：他們有舊業(yè)務(wù)和新業(yè)務(wù)。（聽不清楚）。自動審核是一個好主意。它對Edison公司特別有用。
But now IBM is a kind of super market and I don’t really have an opinion about it. I’m neither a believer nor disbeliever in the new business. It could happen or it could not happen. I do think the old business is very sticky and will die slowly. On the Berkshire side, we have to play a long game. It may work in a mediocre way, it may work big.
但現(xiàn)在IBM某種程度上就像超市，我并不真正地對它有什么主張。我并不是新業(yè)務(wù)的相信者或者不信任者。它可能發(fā)生也可能不發(fā)生。我認(rèn)為舊的業(yè)務(wù)非常具有粘性，并且它將緩慢衰亡。在伯克希爾那里，我們不得不玩長期游戲。它可能運(yùn)作平庸，它可能運(yùn)作很好。
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Questioner Eight: What are your expectations for BYD?
（注：中國公司BYD問題）
提問者8：你對BYD的期待是什么？
Charlie Munger: That too is a venture capital like company. The founder started by borrowing $ 300K from the Bank of China, and was going into the small batteries business. He succeeded in grabbing a small part of that market. He’s a very remarkable man, doing an insanely ambitious thing. Last month he sold 10,000 electric cars in China, which is more than Tesla sold. Most people have never heard of BYD.
芒格：那同樣是一個像風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的公司。公司創(chuàng)立者從銀行借貸30萬美元開始起步，逐步進(jìn)入小型電池業(yè)務(wù)。他成功地獲得該市場的小份額。他是個非常卓越的人，做了件具有瘋狂雄心的事情。上個月，他在中國賣了10，000輛電動車，比特斯拉賣得還多。大多數(shù)人沒有聽過BYD。
Berkshire doesn’t do this venture capital stuff, and I hope that the Daily Journal works out half as well. BYD is in a position to benefit from this electrification trend. It’s very helpful when people are dying in the streets of Beijing because they can’t breathe the air.
伯克希爾不做風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的事宜，我希望Daily Journal進(jìn)展有它一半好。BYD正處在受益于其電氣化趨勢的位置中。當(dāng)人們因?yàn)樗麄儫o法呼吸空氣，而在北京街頭奄奄一息的時候，它非常有用
We have electric forklifts in this country. Do you really want carbon dioxide in the warehouse? It’s a very interesting venture capital investment. It was an accident that the Daily Journal is doing a venture. I only wish we came across more BYDs.
我們在這個國家有電氣叉車。你真的想要倉庫中的二氧化碳嗎？它是個非常有趣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本投資。Daily Journal正在做風(fēng)投是個意外。我僅希望我們遇到更多的BYD。
Questioner Nine: How do you use the discount rate to calculate intrinsic value?
（注：重要的問題，談如何估值。）提問者9：你如何用折算率去計(jì)算內(nèi)在價(jià)值呢？
Charlie Munger: We don’t use numeric formulas that way. We take into account quality factors. It’s like a bridge hand, you have to think about a lot of things. There is never going to be a formula. If that worked, every mathematical person would be rich, but that’s not the way it works.
芒格：我們并不那樣使用公式。我們考慮質(zhì)量因素。它就像打橋牌，你不得不考慮很多事情。從來沒有公式。如果公式奏效，所有的數(shù)學(xué)人員都將變得富裕，但那不是它（現(xiàn)實(shí)）運(yùn)作的方式。
Questioner Nine: But you value a company…
提問者9： 但你為一個公司估值……
Charlie Munger: Opportunity cost is crucial, and the risk free rate is one factor.
芒格：機(jī)會成本是至關(guān)重要的，并且無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率是一個因素。
Questioner Nine: Do you use the same rate for different businesses?
提問者9：你對不同的業(yè)務(wù)使用同樣的折現(xiàn)率么？
Charlie Munger: The answer is no, of course not, different businesses need different rates. They all are viewed in terms of value, and they’re weighed one against another. But a person will pay more for a good business than for a lousy one. We really don’t want any lousy businesses anymore. We used to make money betting on reinventing lousy businesses and kind of wringing money out of them, but that is a really painful, difficult way to make money, especially if you’re already rich. We don’t do much of it anymore.
芒格：答案是否定的。當(dāng)然不是，不同的業(yè)務(wù)需要不同的折現(xiàn)率。它們都根據(jù)價(jià)值來考慮，并且需要一個對一個地權(quán)衡它們（weighed one against another）。但是一個人將為好的業(yè)務(wù)支付多于糟糕的業(yè)務(wù)。我們真的再也不想要任何糟糕的業(yè)務(wù)。我們過去曾經(jīng)從徹底改造糟糕業(yè)務(wù)中賺錢，并且類似于從它們中擰出錢來，然而那真是一個痛苦的，困難的賺錢方式，特別是如果你已經(jīng)富裕了。我們不再經(jīng)常這樣做了。
Sometimes we do it by accident, cause one of our businesses turns lousy, and in that case it’s like dealing with your relatives you can’t get rid of. We deal with those as best we can, but we’re out looking for new ones.
有時候，我們偶然地這么做，因?yàn)槲覀兊哪骋粋€業(yè)務(wù)變得糟糕了，既然那樣，就像對待你無法擺脫的親戚。我們盡可能好地處理那些業(yè)務(wù)，但我們會去尋找新的業(yè)務(wù)。
Questioner Ten: Mental models question….what are your favorites?
（注：談思維模型）提問者10：思維模型問題……你喜歡什么？
Charlie Munger: Well, we’re always talking about multiple models, and that means I have many. That’s the nature of reality. There’s no way that it can be easy. You are all in the investment business – do you find it easy? Anybody who finds it easy is wrong. You are looking at an illusion. Occasionally you’ll get an easy one, but not very many. Mostly it’s hard. How many people find it hard? (Most of audience raises hands) Intelligent group of people here. We collect them. (Audience laughs)
芒格： 我們總是談?wù)摱喾N模型（multiple models），那意味著我有許多。那才是現(xiàn)實(shí)的本性。沒有辦法使它能夠簡單。你們都在投資業(yè)務(wù)中——你們發(fā)現(xiàn)它簡單嗎？任何人覺得它簡單都是錯誤的。你正看著假象。偶然地，你會獲得一個容易的，但不是非常多。大多數(shù)地，它是困難的。多少人發(fā)現(xiàn)它是困難的？（大多數(shù)聽眾舉手） 聰明的一群人在這里。我們糾正他們（的看法）。（聽眾笑了）
