Economic sanctions? Yes, please
經(jīng)濟制裁？拜托，快來吧
Brussels wants to delve deep into the running of national economies. It should beware of digging too far
歐盟想深入鉆研國家經(jīng)濟的運行。應(yīng)該留神不要鉆的太深。
Sep 30th 2010
2010.09.30
THEY came to Brussels this week in their tens of thousands, from Finland to Greece, to say no to austerity. Their message was simple: the poor and the workers are being made to pay for the sins of the bankers and the speculators. To judge from some banners, they may have a new category of enemy: Eurocrats.
數(shù)以萬計的抗議者們從芬蘭到希臘的廣大地域內(nèi)來到布魯塞爾，抗議財政緊縮政策。他們傳達的信息很簡單：窮人和工人正在被迫為銀行和投機者犯下的罪行買單。從一些打出的標語來看，他們又有了新的一群敵人---歐盟官員。
José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, keeps saying that the days of stimulus spending are over; now is the time for budget cuts. To ensure that members of the European Union maintain fiscal discipline, he proposed on September 29th stern new measures to give the commission power to scrutinise their budgets and impose hundreds of millions of euros’ worth of penalties on the profligate. Even those that pig-headedly refuse to reform their economies could be punished.
歐盟委員會主席巴羅佐一直在說，刺激經(jīng)濟的支出已告結(jié)束，到了削減預(yù)算的時候了。為了保證歐盟成員國繼續(xù)遵守財政紀律，他于9月29日提出了一份苛刻的新方法，授予委員會對成員國預(yù)算的審查權(quán)，以及有權(quán)對肆意鋪張的國家處以相當(dāng)于上億歐元的處罰。連那些頑固地拒絕對本國進行經(jīng)濟改革的國家也可能被罰。
For Mr Barroso this “economic governance” is the only way to ensure the survival of the euro. But outside the commission, demonstrators see things differently. To John Monks, general secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation, the EU is turning into a “punishment squad”. Left-wing members of the European Parliament are in a quandary. They want “more Europe”, but in this case more Europe means more austerity.
在巴羅佐看來，這種“經(jīng)濟管理”是保證歐元得以存續(xù)的唯一方式。但在歐盟委員會之外的示威者可不這么看。在歐洲工會聯(lián)邦總干事John Monks看來，歐盟正在變成一個“懲罰班”。歐洲議會中的左翼成員左右為難，他們想要“更加歐洲化”，但就此情況下，更加歐洲化意味著更嚴厲的財政緊縮。
This year’s Greek crisis exposed the inadequacies of the euro, a single currency without a joint economic or fiscal policy. Trouble in even a peripheral country like Greece, whose GDP is less than a tenth of Germany’s, posed dangers to all. Loose agreements have not proved strong enough to stop reckless behaviour. Sanctions exist, in theory, in the stability and growth pact, which requires euro-area countries to keep deficits below 3% of GDP and government debt below 60% of GDP, but they have never been imposed. Governments have been reluctant to criticise each other in public, let alone to mete out fines.
今年希臘的危機暴露了歐元的缺陷，身為單一貨幣卻沒有共同的經(jīng)濟和財政政策。就連希臘這種GDP不到德國十分之一的次要國家有了麻煩，就使所有國家都陷入了危險。事實證明，松散的協(xié)議不足以阻止魯莽的行為。制裁只在理論上存在于穩(wěn)定與增長公約【注1】中，公約要求歐盟區(qū)國家的赤字要低于GDP的3%，政府債務(wù)低于GDP的60%，但制裁從未真正實施過。各國政府連公開地互相批評都不愿意，更別說交罰款了。
The commission’s suggested solution is to appoint itself as fire warden, firefighter and prosecutor. European leaders agreed earlier this month to submit their budgets to Brussels for scrutiny six months earlier than they used to. Countries will be monitored not just for excessive deficits and debts, but also for imbalances and falling competitiveness. Penalties for the recalcitrant will include warnings and deposits of up to 0.2% of GDP into, first, interest-bearing accounts, and then into non-interest bearing ones. In the end, these funds could be forfeited entirely.
委員會建議的解決方案是自任消防管理員，救火隊員和檢察官。歐洲各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人本月早些時候同意將本國預(yù)算比之前提早六個月上報給歐盟委員會審查。各國被監(jiān)控的不僅包括過度的赤字和債務(wù)，還有預(yù)算失衡和日益下降的競爭力。對不服管的國家的懲罰將包括警告，以及將最高占GDP的0.2%的保證金首先存入計息空頭賬戶，然后轉(zhuǎn)入不計息空頭賬戶。最后，這些錢可能被完全沒收。
The idea is to impose sanctions early in the process rather than at the end, when they would only exacerbate a country’s fiscal problems. It is also to focus as much on debt levels as on annual fiscal deficits.To reduce ministers’ temptation to protect each other, the commission suggests “reverse voting”: instead of a majority being required to impose sanctions, the penalties would be approved unless a majority votes them down.
這個意見是要在情況轉(zhuǎn)壞過程的早期就實施制裁，而不是等到最后制裁只能使一國的財政問題惡化時才實施。同時該意見也給予國家債務(wù)水平和年度赤字同樣的關(guān)注。為了減少部長們因某種誘惑而互保的行為，委員會建議實行“反表決”：只要沒有多數(shù)票否決，就實施制裁，而不必有多數(shù)票贊成才能實施。
All this would apply at first only to the euro zone, for which the legal powers are clearer. But later there could be a parallel system, based on withholding future EU payments, for those outside the euro. This would have to wait for next year’s round of budget negotiations. Britain will keep its opt-out, but several non-euro members want shackles. As a senior EU source says, “it’s strange to hear countries saying: ‘We want sanctions!’”
以上規(guī)則最初將只在法定權(quán)力更明晰的歐元區(qū)內(nèi)部實行。但不久，在對歐盟國家支付實行預(yù)扣的基礎(chǔ)上，將會出臺一套針對歐元區(qū)國家之外的類似體制。這有待于明年的下一輪預(yù)算談判。英國單方面不加入該體制，但有幾個非歐盟國家主動要求帶鐐銬。一位歐盟高級消息人士說：“聽到有國家表示“請制裁我們吧”，真是奇怪?！?span lang="EN-US">
As Eurocrats tell it, most countries accept the thrust of these ideas. Germany has, for now, dropped its demand that heavily indebted countries should lose voting rights. Only a few quibble. France dislikes “semi-automatic” sanctions. Italy is against the focus on debt. Spain does not want sanctions for uncompetitiveness. Yet some scepticism is still in order. Even if EU leaders give their nod at a summit next month, months of detailed negotiations lie ahead. All 16 members of the euro zone now breach the 3% deficit threshold, and 12 also violate the 60% debt limit. They are not about to engage in mutual flagellation. The new rules will not be retrospective, and many sanctions will not bite until 2013. There is an escape clause to avoid penalties if Europe faces a general shock such as the financial crisis.
根據(jù)歐盟官員的說法，大多數(shù)國家承認這些方案有推動力。德國目前已經(jīng)不再堅持負債沉重的國家應(yīng)被剝奪投票權(quán)的要求。只有少數(shù)國家還在用遁詞逃避問題。法國不贊成“半自動”的制裁。意大利反對盯著債務(wù)問題不放，西班牙不同意對無競爭力實施制裁。然而還有一些懷疑也很有道理。就算歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在下月的峰會上同意這一方案，但數(shù)月的關(guān)于細節(jié)問題的談判還有待進行。歐盟全部16個成員國都已達到了3%GDP的赤字上限，有12國超出了60%GDP的債務(wù)上限。它們可不準備互相鞭撻，新規(guī)則并沒有追溯力，很多制裁要到2013年才實施。有一個例外條款可以免除懲罰，條件是歐洲受到如這次金融危機那樣的全面沖擊。
Powers like these might have done something about Greece. But would they have saved Spain or Ireland? Both had healthy public finances before the crash, and yet are now among the most troubled countries. Eurocrats argue that monitoring of imbalances and scrutiny by a new EU financial regulator could have spotted their problems sooner. Perhaps. But imbalances are easier to identify after a bust than during a boom. As one Eurocrat mockingly puts it, “We are now like communist central planners. We know everything.”
